Gold And Silver – A Telling View Through ETFs

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Saturday  14 February 2015

The changes going on in the world continue to accelerate, but changes that directly relate
to gold and silver are hard to find and correlate to developing price activity.  This was
addressed in the first two paragraphs of last week’s article, Forget The News, so there is no
need to repeat how fundamental news is not driving price.

None of the fundamentals are reliable for market timing, charts being preferred for that
aspect, and even the charts are not indicating the “when” will gold and silver embark on
a change in trend.  With an overload of news events, a shorter read of what is going on in
the markets via the charts makes more sense.

This week, we take a look at ETF charts to see if/how they may be helpful for clues in
reading the futures gold/silver charts.  The net effect is how the ETFs can be used as a tool
to confirm the futures charts at/near turning points like swing highs and lows.  After a
review of silver, there are six ETF-related charts with some short observations, followed
by gold  and eight gold ETF charts

The takeaway on weekly silver is a lack of defining activity that indicates the bottoming
process is ending.  Simply put, there is none.  The greater ease of market movement is still
on the downside.  We call it EDM [Ease of Downward Movement], and the direction of
most ease of movement is with the trend.  In an up trend, there would be EUM [Ease of
Upward Movement].

The EDM, 3 bars ago, is an alert to see how the market responds, either with more ease
of movement lower or a lack of follow through, for both convey market intent.  The two
weeks following show an inability for buyers to overcome efforts of the sellers, especially
when the reaction rally stopped cold at resistance.  Looking at the markets more from a
logical perspective, it is easier to avoid the “noise of the news” that has no lasting impact.

SI W 14 Feb 15

While it appears price is putting in a better show on the daily chart, Friday’s rally gets
lost when compared to its net effect relative to the S/D bar [Supply over Demand] on a
significant increase in volume at the end of January.  When you think of volume as a
source of energy driving the market, compare the next 11 TDs and consider how all of
that effort failed to negate the S/D bar.  It is hard to be enthusiastic about Friday when
put in that context.

SI D 14 Feb 15

SLV is the iShares for silver.   We show a D/S bar [Demand greater than Supply] on
increased volume.  This is a weekly chart.  The above example of S/D was on a daily.
The significance of a D/S bar is that it will act as support on a retest.  The question is
where will support be found?  It will be anywhere from the high of the bar, down to
the low.  In a strong market, the upper part of the D/S bar will act as support.  In a
down market, the lower end of the D/S will often be retested, as is happening in this
chart.

While the low-end of the D/S bar is holding, note that price is not reacting away to
the upside, and that makes potential support suspect.

SLV W 13 Feb 14

ACQ is Pro Shares Ultra Silver.  The spike in volume at the reaction swing high of the rally
on such a small range bar was a huge red flag.  Here you see the opposite of any ease of
movement.  The narrowed range tells us the sellers were stopping all efforts of the buyers
to extend the rally.  Buying power was matched and spent.  This opened the door for the
sellers to take over in the constant ebb and flow of control.

What is useful in viewing this chart is the fact that the rally high failed to fill the gap from
the last swing low, back in June ’14.  This little space is how “bearish spacing” is formed.
It is an indication that buyers are too weak and seller are in more control.  Using this
information with the futures chart, above, acts as additional confirmation to the red flag
indication on that chart.

AGQ W 13 Feb 14

The holding of price at the EUM bar low, 5 bars ago, also adds to the retest on SLV and
how price marginally held on the daily silver chart.  The interplay of these charts may not
be absolute on all occasions, but they can serve as a secondary source of confirmation.

SIVR W 14 Feb 15

USLV, Velocity Shares, 3x Long Silver presents an interesting dilemma in reading the
sharp increase in volume activity.  It could be viewed as bullish, as in strong hands
buying all the offerings from tired weak hands in preparation for a move higher, but we
keep coming back to that chart showing the largest traders short over 300 million oz of
silver, [see Forget The News, first chart].  It then makes more sense to view the volume
as strong hands selling as much as they can to weaker hands that will jettison their
newly acquired long positions on the next drive to lower lows, should it develop in that
manner.

You do not get as clear a volume read on any other chart as this one, and it shows the
importance of being aware of the ancillary ETF charts.

USLV W 14 Feb 15

ZSL is Pro Shares Ultra Short Silver, and a daily chart.  At first, this looked like possible
accumulation in preparation for a rally higher, however, in context with the other charts
and massive short positions, a second read is less positive.  The high volume at the rally
high is a red flag, [increased effort, no follow-up payoff], and the rally stopped at the gap
down resistance from the middle of January.

ZSL D 14 Feb 15

DSLV is 3x Inverse Silver.  Chart comments apply.

DSLV D 14 Feb 15

Chart comments spell out how to view weekly gold.  One should never lose sight of the fact
that gold is in a protracted trading range in a likely, but unconfirmed bottoming process.
Ironically, for all of the possible news/events that can impact the price of gold, whenever
price is in a TR [Trading Range], the level of knowledge is at its lowest because price can
move in either direction within the TR and not mean anything.  This is why it is important
to keep a market in its context.

GC W 14 Feb 15

S/D and its opposite, D/S, are important bars of which to be aware because they are more
often than not created by controlling influences.  It is also why these ranges act as support
or resistance.  This is especially true when volume is greater than normal.

Here, the S/D bar acted as resistance, and price was unable to rally even to the half-way
point of the bar.  Contrast this with the SLV analysis with a D/S bar in a down trend.  Look
at how weakly price has been, drifting yet lower, unable to mount any challenge to a S/D
bar while in a down tend and momentum of price direction.  This is yet another example
of why knowing the trend is so important.

GC D 14 Feb 15

Compare this red flag warning [arrow] at the rally high with the weekly gold chart, and you
can better see how a clearer signal was being issued by the market.

GLD W 13 Fwb 14

Another example of understanding the trend that makes reading developing market
activity more meaningful in harmony with the trend.

IAU is the iShares Gold Trust

IAU W 13 Feb 14

After the more obvious tell from the small bar at the swing high, this ETF gave more
information the following week with an increase in volume effort that yielded no result
higher.  If that is the case, expect more downside.  Again, the interplay of extracting
information from different but similar market sources can enhance one’s read of the
developing activity and lead to a better informed decision process.

SGOL w 13 Feb 15

DGP = Power Shares DB Gold Double Long.  The interpretation of the high volume bar,
2nd bar from right, leads to an observation, and an observation does not mean one should
take action, rather, use it to see if the market responds to how you read it.  While we say
odds may favor a rally, the trend  could very well negate that interpretation.  Always go
with the trend.

DGP W 14 Feb 15

GLL is Pro Shares Ultra Short Gold.  We mentioned how the level of knowledge is at its
least when price is in a TR.  The lowest level of knowledge is when price is in the middle
of the TR.  Price could rally to 105+ or decline to 78+ without leaving the TR, but if you
pick the wrong direction in taking a position, losses will occur.  This is a low-level trade
area for making a decision.  The best decision is not making one.

GLL W 14 Feb 15

The trend, the trend. It provides important information.

UGLD W 14 Fwb 15

While this and the above chart are not compelling, they do provide a perspective that
clearly says gold is unlikely to turn around and change trend regardless of whatever news
you may read or some pundit claiming an upside move is imminent, or worse, already
underway.  The charts do not lie.

BAR D 14 Feb 15

 

 

 

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Michael Noonan
Michael Noonan is the driving force behind Edge Trader Plus. He has been in the futures business for 30 years, functioning primarily in an individual capacity. He was the research analyst for the largest investment banker in the South, at one time, and he managed money in the cash bond market for a $5 billion pension fund using Peter Steidlmeyer’s Market Profile. Proficient in Gann, Elliott Wave, Market Profile, etc, Mr Noonan no longer uses any of those technical procedures. Instead, his primary focus is on developing market activity, relying solely on the information generated by the market itself, such as the interaction between price and volume, and how they relate to important price levels in the market structure. He incorporates proven market principles, such as knowledge of the trend, supply and demand, along with disciplined rules for to find developing high probability trade opportunities.

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