Non-Predictions for 2013 and 2014

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Non-Prections for 2013 and 2014

(January 2013)

 

More of the Same

    • More money printing by central banks. A trillion here and a trillion there, printed money everywhere.
    • More deficit spending. $3 Billion per day, but who cares?
    • More useless commentary about controlling spending, but the result will be increased spending and more useless commentary.
    • More and higher taxes. More consumer price inflation.
    • More QE. Printing money props up the stock market, but for how long?
    • More debt. More student loans, more credit card debt, more mortgages, more sovereign debt, and eventually some nasty defaults.

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Less of the Same

    • Less Congressional credibility – low and going lower.
    • Less belief in a better future. It is difficult to believe in a brighter future when the food stamps and welfare payments just don’t buy what they used to.
    • Less employment. People continue to drop out of the employment statistics because they have given up hope of finding work. This is called “structural unemployment.”
    • Less purchasing power for the dollar. The more the central banks print, the higher the cost of food, fuel, beer, and wine.
    • Lower standard of living. With much higher costs, the standard of living for most Americans will continue to decline.

About the Same

    • The media will continue to assure us that gold is in a bubble – a decade of nonsense – wrong then and wrong now.
    • The media will assure us that silver prices are volatile. That and $2.11 will buy a grande coffee.
    • Inflation and unemployment will continue to be under-reported, even in non-election years.
    • Congressional accomplishments will continue to be over-reported.
    • SNAFU: System Non-functional, All Funding Unlimited.
    • TBTF banks will remain Too Big To Fail.
    • European financial troubles will continue. Ditto for Japan, the UK, and the US.
    • The Federal Reserve will bail out banks and fund much of the government deficit. They will claim this benefits both employment and the economy. That benefit plus $2.11 will buy a grande coffee.

Non-Predictions for 2013 and 2014

A train wreck is in process. We have been warned. Protect your finances, investments, and retirement. The official numbers may not represent reality.

 

GE Christenson
aka Deviant Investor

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I am a retired accountant and business manager who has 30 years of experience studying markets, investing, and trading futures and stocks. I have made and lost money during my investing career, and those successes and losses have taught me about timing markets, risk management, government created inflation, and market crashes. I currently invest for the long term, and I swing trade (in a trade from one to four weeks) stocks and ETFs using both fundamental and technical analysis. I offer opinions and commentary, but not investment advice. Years ago I did graduate work in physics (all but dissertation) so I strongly believe in analysis, objective facts, and rational decisions based on hard data. I currently live in Texas with my wife. Previously, I spent 20 years in Barrow, Alaska, the northernmost community in the United States, 330 miles north of the Arctic Circle. There are many parallels between surviving in the arctic and investing for substantial gains in today’s market. For example: - Preparation for surviving arctic weather is critical, just as preparation is essential when investing. - There is little room for delusional thinking when you are subjected to a 40 degrees below zero blizzard while facing 30 mph of wind. Similarly, dangerous markets will punish delusional thinking. - There is much to learn about survival in the arctic, considerably more than just "wear more clothes." Markets appear less complicated and easier to understand than they actually are. Underestimating either arctic conditions or the complexity of markets can be deadly. - Temperatures in the arctic gradually move from dreadfully cold to mildly warm. Markets seem chaotic in the short term but gradually move up and down in long cycles. - One can experience the "midnight sun" for several months in the arctic. During that time, it seems like the sun will last forever. It does not, and several months later you will live through two months of darkness. Bull markets feel like they will rally forever. They do not and are followed by bear markets, regardless of what the Wall Street cheerleaders wish us to believe.

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