Back to Basics: A Planned Crisis?


Back to Basics: A Planned Crisis?


Franklin D. Roosevelt, the 32nd president of the United States said, “In politics, nothing happens by accident. If it happens, you can bet it was planned that way.


    • The US government spends $1 – $2 Trillion more each year than it collects in revenues, using strictly cash accounting. This is not sustainable. But the deficit is actually far worse when accrued liabilities are included – as calculated by Laurence Kotlikoff. Using his numbers, the fiscal gap is approximately $222 Trillion, up about $11 Trillion from last year. The fiscal gap (present value difference between projected future spending and revenue) increased about $11 Trillion in one year because the projected future liabilities dramatically increased compared to projected future revenues. The fiscal dilemma of the US Government is actually far worse than the official budget deficit. Clearly something must drastically change.


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  • The US National Debt (official cash accounting) increases about 12% per year (last five years) while the GPD (Gross Domestic Product) is hardly changing, or decreasing, if inflation were properly calculated.
  • Current US government expenses for entitlements (Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, Military Pensions, etc.) plus current expenses for interest on the National Debt exceed current revenues. The government would still go into debt every year, even if it cut 100% of military expenses and 100% of the remaining US government bureaucracy.
  • The Federal Reserve creates $85,000,000,000 per month of new currency from “thin air” and uses that new digital currency to bail out “Too Big To Fail” (TBTF) banks. The famous “Bernanke Helicopter Drop” is dumping billions into the politically connected banks but little onto “main street” USA. In simple terms, the wealthy are bailed out, the poor are given food stamps and welfare, and the middle class pays via taxes and inflationary confiscation of their savings and pensions.
  • All of the above are signs of financial desperation resulting from unsustainable policies.

I repeat,”In politics, nothing happens by accident. If it happens, you can bet it was planned that way.

Follow this logical thought process.

Washington D.C. and Wall Street are filled with highly intelligent people who know that:

  • Unbacked paper money always declines in value to near zero.
  • The government cannot tax businesses and individuals into wealth and prosperity.
  • The government cannot create wealth, prosperity and employment by printing money – debt monetization – QE4-Ever – Inflate or Die.
  • Deficits DO matter.
  • Massive money printing will NOT help the economy long-term, but it WILL CREATE inflation in consumer prices.
  • We cannot get something for nothing.
  • Unsustainable fiscal policies will eventually collapse or fail.

However, our “leaders” in Washington D.C. and on Wall Street pretend they believe the above nonsense about printing money to create wealth and employment, debt increasing without limit, and fiscally unsustainable policies continuing forever. Why? Perhaps there is an ulterior motive!


  • Although our supposed leaders are presumably highly intelligent, educated, and knowledgeable, they act largely “brain-dead” as they lead the United States down an unsustainable path that guarantees eventual catastrophic financial destruction. Think lemmings and a cliff. Is there an ulterior motive?
  • Bankers, the military, oil companies, military contractors, large corporations, and other special interests have purchased legislation that benefits them while creating huge government expenditures. In addition to entitlements, the result is out-of-control spending. Was this out-of-control spending caused by normal greed, or was there a larger plan – an ulterior motive?
  • I suspect that the real leaders (political and financial elite) have supported and enabled unsustainable policies and practices knowing that a crisis and collapse of some sort must inevitably occur. Why? “Never waste a crisis!” The next financial crisis, like the crisis of 2008, will transfer a massive amount of wealth from the middle class to the political and financial elite and will consolidate more power under government control. “You can bet it was planned that way.

If another crisis is imminent, then consider what the next several years will do to:

  • Your income, your expenses, and your wealth
  • Consumer prices
  • The total National Debt
  • Size of the federal government

Get back to basics! “If it happens (in politics), you can bet it was planned.” If intelligent people relentlessly pursue obviously unworkable financial policies down an unsustainable path, there must be an ulterior motive. Will you, as a middle-class American (European, Canadian) benefit from the consequences of that ulterior motive? Probably not!

Are you prepared? Read We Have Been Warned and Something for Nothing.

Counter-party risk could be devastating in the next financial crisis. If “B” owes you money and files for bankruptcy because “A” does not pay “B”, then you have counter-party risk that could be very costly. The value of gold and silver is NOT dependent upon a government or corporation paying a debt or fulfilling their promises. Gold and silver have no counter-party risk and will survive the next crisis.

The prices for gold and silver are dependent upon the total money in circulation (more money means higher gold prices), real (nominal rate minus inflation rate) interest rates (lower rates mean higher gold prices), and confidence or lack of confidence in governments and their fiscal policies. I rate gold and silver as healthy and safe investments and the bonds of various sovereign nations as increasingly risky. Would you rather own gold or government bonds from Greece (Portugal, Spain, Italy, United Kingdom, or United States)? Do you own enough gold and silver that you would feel safe in a financial melt-down?

If not, why not?


GE Christenson
aka Deviant Investor

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I am a retired accountant and business manager who has 30 years of experience studying markets, investing, and trading futures and stocks. I have made and lost money during my investing career, and those successes and losses have taught me about timing markets, risk management, government created inflation, and market crashes. I currently invest for the long term, and I swing trade (in a trade from one to four weeks) stocks and ETFs using both fundamental and technical analysis. I offer opinions and commentary, but not investment advice. Years ago I did graduate work in physics (all but dissertation) so I strongly believe in analysis, objective facts, and rational decisions based on hard data. I currently live in Texas with my wife. Previously, I spent 20 years in Barrow, Alaska, the northernmost community in the United States, 330 miles north of the Arctic Circle. There are many parallels between surviving in the arctic and investing for substantial gains in today’s market. For example: - Preparation for surviving arctic weather is critical, just as preparation is essential when investing. - There is little room for delusional thinking when you are subjected to a 40 degrees below zero blizzard while facing 30 mph of wind. Similarly, dangerous markets will punish delusional thinking. - There is much to learn about survival in the arctic, considerably more than just "wear more clothes." Markets appear less complicated and easier to understand than they actually are. Underestimating either arctic conditions or the complexity of markets can be deadly. - Temperatures in the arctic gradually move from dreadfully cold to mildly warm. Markets seem chaotic in the short term but gradually move up and down in long cycles. - One can experience the "midnight sun" for several months in the arctic. During that time, it seems like the sun will last forever. It does not, and several months later you will live through two months of darkness. Bull markets feel like they will rally forever. They do not and are followed by bear markets, regardless of what the Wall Street cheerleaders wish us to believe.

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